The Browns matchup against the Tennessee Titans on Sunday, December 6th is not only one of the biggest games of the 2020 season, but it is one of the biggest games of the Baker Mayfield era. Both teams are 8–3 and fighting for a playoff spot and they’re playing good football right now.
It is pretty interesting how similar the Titans and Browns are. They both have elite rushing attacks, rely on play-action, and their defenses have been inconsistent all season. Let’s take a look at their rankings this season on offense and defense :
Offense
Passing
Cleveland: 30th — 194 yards per game
Tennessee: 22nd — 227 yards per game
Rushing
Cleveland: 1st — 161 yards per game
Tennessee: 2nd — 158 yards per game
Overall
Cleveland: 18th — 355 yards per game
Tennessee: 8th — 385 yards per game
Defense
Passing
Cleveland: 20th — 246 yards per game
Tennessee: 28th — 268 yards per game
Rushing
Cleveland: 9th — 108 yards per game
Tennessee: 17th — 115 yards per game
Overall
Cleveland: 17th — 354 yards per game
Tennessee: 25th — 384 yards per game
Remember when I said these teams are very similar? There’s your evidence right there. Cleveland’s passing offense is skewed a bit because they played 3 straight games in atrocious weather where neither team’s QB in could get it going through the air, but regardless of that, the rushing attack has been a big factor of why they’re 8–3. Baker Mayfield has played well too, especially as of late with no interceptions in over a month. For the Titans, Ryan Tannehill has been great in 2020 and is currently ranked 5th in the NFL in Total QBR. His chemistry with emerging star Wide Receiver AJ Brown is very effective and dangerous. Neither team throws many interceptions. The Browns have 7 and the Titans have 4. If a turnover happens this game, there’s a good chance it’ll be a fumble.
This game is going to come down to two things: One, which team can get a lead first. Two, which team can run the ball more effectively. Derrick Henry has been playing at an MVP level for the Titans and one could say the same about Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt for the Browns, who are both on pace for 1,000 yards each. Since coming back from injury, Nick Chubb has had over 100 yards in each game and sealed 3 straight victories with 20+ yard runs. He is also averaging 12.6 YPC in the 4th quarter this season. No, that isn’t a typo… He is on another planet.
Unfortunately for the Browns, this is the time of year where Derrick Henry becomes virtually unstoppable. Last week against the Colts, he rushed for 178 yards and 119 of those came after contact. It will be a massive test for our defense to contain him, but he will most likely get his yards and be a big factor in the game. The Browns will have to force turnovers and put pressure on Tannehill in order to win this game. Having Myles Garrett back from the COVID List against a banged up Tennessee offensive line is huge for the Browns. He has wrecked every single game he’s played this year and that will have to happen on Sunday.
The running game will be key in this matchup, but this is also a HUGE game for Baker Mayfield. He has to be able to push the ball down the field, take care of the ball, and throw TD passes. The narrative around Cleveland right now is that they can’t beat good teams. Which to an extent, has been true in 2020. The Ravens won big in the opener, which I give them a bit of a pass on because of it being game one with a new offense and an unprecedented off-season. But the loss to Pittsburgh earlier this year was bad… Really bad. He needs to prove he can win against a good team, otherwise that narrative will not go away. I personally think that Baker is Cleveland’s franchise QB and will only get better, but at a certain point he has to prove he can beat good teams (he is 5–13 against winning teams since his 2018 rookie year after all).
The Titans aren’t a powerhouse team, but they are well coached and they’re dangerous with Henry, Tannehill, and AJ Brown. They consistently find ways to win and if they get out to a big lead, it could be a long day for the Browns. It is also worth noting that the Titans have allowed less than 4.0 YPC in 6 of the last 7 games. So while the Browns rushing attack is elite, the Titans could find ways to contain it. Luckily the Browns offensive line is healthy and playing at a very high level, so that should help Chubb and Hunt get going.
This is likely a game that will be won at the line of scrimmage and will come down to a few key plays. Myles Garrett should feast against a 3rd string Left Tackle and on the Titans side of the ball, they might not have a good pass rush, but Defensive Tackle Jeffrey Simmons is playing well this season so he could challenge the interior of Cleveland’s offensive line. Tannehill and the Titans have done well hitting big plays with AJ Brown down the field, so the Browns have to pray that lackluster Safety Andrew Sendejo isn’t out of place on those plays. Since the Browns run a lot of 21 personnel sets, the Titans will likely counter with 2 Inside Linebackers instead of Nickel sets. ILB David Long for the Titans will be getting a lot of playing time and will be in charge of coverage on Kareem Hunt in 3rd down situations. Long will have his work cut out for him against Hunt who gets a lot of yards after the catch. The Browns Linebackers are pretty terrible overall, so expect to see lots of underneath routes from the Titans to take advantage of their poor coverage skills.
This matchup is huge and will most likely be a close, high-scoring game. The Browns must win their battles, control the clock, and get out to an early lead. This is the game to silence a lot of the critics out there.
